C R U C I A L
Climate Risk and Uncertainty Collective Intelligence Aggregation Laboratory
CRUCIAL’s mission is to deliver calibrated, high-quality climate-risk forecasts.
We employ expert prediction markets – hosted on the AGORA prediction-market platform – to elicit, aggregate, and summarise knowledge on future climate risks, drawing on expertise from diverse areas of physical, social, and policy science.
Climate-risk information provision faces severe challenges
AGORA prediction market platform
AGORA is a platform for hosting sophisticated prediction markets that can aggregate the output of quantitative predictive models alongside more tacit forms of expert knowledge. AGORA was originally created by the investment manager Winton Group before being further developed by its technology spinout, Hivemind.
AGORA supports markets that generate high-resolution joint probability distributions from the trading activity of participants, who can use the AGORA UI or trade programmatically using an API.
AGORA has been tested over the past three years and used to run prediction markets with expert participants for forecasting seasonal temperatures and rainfall, Atlantic hurricane activity, and El Niño events. Hivemind transferred the IP for AGORA to Lancaster University in 2022 for use in CRUCIAL.
Active Markets
CRUCIAL’s inaugural market is live
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The AGORA platform was developed by the Winton Group.
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