Post Archive

CRUCIAL featured in Independent article
CRUCIAL’s Mark Roulston is among the scientists Helen Coffey interviewed about the prospect of a Super El Niño in 2026.
Jun 1, 2026 3 min read
CRUCIAL featured in Independent article
New joint-outcome markets: El Niño-Southern Oscillation & Indian Ocean Dipole
CRUCIAL opens 4 new markets for the joint outcome of the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI) and the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (IODMI): Sept–Nov 2026, Dec–Feb 2027, Mar–May 2027, Jun–Aug 2027.
May 25, 2026 2 min read
New joint-outcome markets: El Niño-Southern Oscillation & Indian Ocean Dipole
New Teams Join CRUCIAL Markets
Teams from Maynooth University Ireland, the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, the University of West Indies at Mona, Jamaica, and Colby College, USA, join CRUCIAL Markets.
May 15, 2026 2 min read
New Teams Join CRUCIAL Markets
AGORA Trading Guide v1.1
Guide to using CRUCIAL’s AGORA prediction market platform — API update (April 2026)
Apr 11, 2026 2 min read
PDF
AGORA Trading Guide v1.1
CRUCIAL featured in Bloomberg article
CRUCIAL presented as exemplar of Science Markets
Apr 10, 2026 4 min read
CRUCIAL featured in Bloomberg article
Lancaster University Global Newsletter
Climate change has become a major priority for governments, industries and insurance providers worldwide, and CRUCIAL’s expert prediction market approach is a valuable instrument for governments and private-sector organisations gauge these risks.
Oct 13, 2025 2 min read
Lancaster University Global Newsletter
Five tips for making the most of El Niño and La Niña forecasts
Expert advice from Pedro Di Nezio on how to gain the greatest advantage from look-ahead forecasts of El Niño and La Niña
Jun 19, 2025 1 min read
Five tips for making the most of El Niño and La Niña forecasts
The 2024 Atlantic Tropical Storm Naming List
For ease of communication with the public, each tropical storm is alotted a distinctive, instantly recognisable name. The storm retains this name even when it develops into a fully fledged hurricane.
Jun 11, 2025 2 min read
Prediction markets are not a free lunch
Prediction markets should be explicitly funded by sponsors who want the information that the markets elicit and aggregate.
Jun 9, 2025 5 min read
Prediction markets are not a free lunch
Researchers to use the power of markets to break El Niño’s ‘Spring Barrier’
What problems do multi-decadal horizons create, and how can they be addressed?
Jun 4, 2025 4 min read
Researchers to use the power of markets to break El Niño’s ‘Spring Barrier’