Publications

Kim Kaivanto (2026). Select bibliography of prediction market literature.

Mark Roulston, Kim Kaivanto, Ralf Toumi (2025). Tracking evolving views of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season with an expert prediction market. Weather 80(8): 277–280.

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Mark Roulston, Kim Kaivanto (2024). Joint-Outcome Prediction Markets for Climate Risks. PLOS ONE 19(8): e0309164.

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Mark Roulston, Kim Kaivanto (2024). Can expert prediction markets forecast climate-related risks?. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 105(10): E1898–E1914.

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Mark Roulston, Todd Kaplan, Brett Day, Kim Kaivanto (2022). Prediction-market innovations can improve climate-risk forecasts. Nature Climate Change 12(10): 879-880.

Mark Roulston, Todd Kaplan, Brett Day, Kim Kaivanto (2022). CRUCIAL White Paper.