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Recent & Upcoming Events
2024
Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risks
In this talk,
Mark Roulston
discusses how LMSR Automated Market Maker prediction markets can solve key challenges of climate risk forecasting.
Sep 18, 2024 2:00 PM — 3:00 PM
University of Reading
Mark Roulston
Slides
Manipulation and (Mis)Trust in Prediction Markets
In this talk, Todd Kaplan (UoExeter, UoHaifa, CRUCIAL) presents joint work with
Lawrence Choo
and
Ro’i Zultan
on the effect that the presence of manipulators has on trust in prediction markets.
Sep 13, 2024 2:45 PM — 3:15 PM
Lancaster University Management School
Todd Kaplan
PDF
Slides
Joint-Outcome Expert Information Markets for Climate Risks: Conditional Forecasting with the LMSR
Kim Kaivanto on the properties and potential of CRUCIAL’s LMSR platform at the
EFAG Second Summer Symposium for Sustainability
hosted by Durham University.
Jul 1, 2024 4:30 PM — 5:00 PM
Durham University Business School, Durham
Kim Kaivanto
Slides
Joint-Outcome Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risks: Conditional Forecasting with the LMSR
Kim Kaivanto on the properties and potential of CRUCIAL’s LMSR platform at the inaugural
Experimental Sustainable Finance
symposium hosted by Radboud University.
Apr 25, 2024 2:20 PM — 2:45 PM
Radboud University, Elinor Ostrom Building
Kim Kaivanto
Slides
2023
Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risks
In this talk, Mark discusses prediction markets for forecasting climate risk, CRUCIAL and its AGORA platform, and the soon-to-open Crucial Atlantic Hurricane Market 2024 (CAHM24).
Nov 8, 2023 12:30 PM — 1:30 PM
University of Exeter, Harrison 101
Mark Roulston
Video
Markets, Information, and Feedback
In this talk, Todd Kaplan (UoExeter, UoHaifa, CRUCIAL) discusses potential feedback effects in equity markets and prediction markets.
Sep 21, 2023 12:00 PM — 1:15 PM
Center for Behavioral Institutional Design, NYU Abu Dhabi
Todd Kaplan
Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risk
Dr Kim Kaivanto and Dr Mark Roulston introduce CRUCIAL at the Pentland Centre.
Jan 25, 2023 1:00 PM — 2:00 PM
Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, LUMS
Kim Kaivanto and Mark Roulston
2022
A viability study of joint-outcome prediction markets for climate risk
We demonstrate the viability of highly granular, two-dimensional (joint) outcome spaces with markets for monthly UK rainfall and temperature.
Dec 7, 2022 1:00 PM — 2:00 PM
Dept of Economics, De Montford University
Kim Kaivanto
Two projects on learning from markets: bank runs and climate change predictions
We use a lab experiment to study the endogeneity between stock market prices and bank runs. We also propose how prediction markets can be used to provide climate change predictions.
Oct 30, 2022 1:00 PM — 2:30 PM
Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, Hebrew University
Todd Kaplan
Prediction Markets for Climate Risk
A workshop about an initiative to address emerging problems with the provision of climate risk information. 8 Feb 2022, Woburn House, London
Feb 8, 2022 2:00 PM — 5:00 PM
Woburn House
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