Recent & Upcoming Events

2025

Using Prediction Markets for Climate-Related Risks

CRUCIAL participates in Climate, Models, and Finance Workshop held at UCL.

Sep 4, 2025 11:30 AM — 12:00 PM Institute of Advanced Studies (IAS), University College London (UCL)

Mark Roulston

CRUCIAL: Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risks

In this SCOR Foundation Webinar, Mark Roulston and Kim Kaivanto present CRUCIAL, followed by a Q&A moderated by Philippe Trainar, Director of the SCOR Foundation.

Jul 10, 2025 12:30 PM — 2:00 PM Online

Mark Roulston, Kim Kaivanto

2024

Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risks

In this talk, Mark Roulston discusses how LMSR Automated Market Maker prediction markets can solve key challenges of climate risk forecasting.

Sep 18, 2024 2:00 PM — 3:00 PM University of Reading

Mark Roulston

Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risks

Manipulation and (Mis)Trust in Prediction Markets

In this talk, Todd Kaplan (UoExeter, UoHaifa, CRUCIAL) presents joint work with Lawrence Choo and Ro’i Zultan on the effect that the presence of manipulators has on trust in prediction markets.

Sep 13, 2024 2:45 PM — 3:15 PM Lancaster University Management School

Todd Kaplan

Joint-Outcome Expert Information Markets for Climate Risks: Conditional Forecasting with the LMSR

Kim Kaivanto on the properties and potential of CRUCIAL’s LMSR platform at the EFAG Second Summer Symposium for Sustainability hosted by Durham University.

Jul 1, 2024 4:30 PM — 5:00 PM Durham University Business School, Durham

Kim Kaivanto

Joint-Outcome Expert Information Markets for Climate Risks: Conditional Forecasting with the LMSR

Joint-Outcome Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risks: Conditional Forecasting with the LMSR

Kim Kaivanto on the properties and potential of CRUCIAL’s LMSR platform at the inaugural Experimental Sustainable Finance symposium hosted by Radboud University.

Apr 25, 2024 2:20 PM — 2:45 PM Radboud University, Elinor Ostrom Building

Kim Kaivanto

2023

Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risks

In this talk, Mark discusses prediction markets for forecasting climate risk, CRUCIAL and its AGORA platform, and the soon-to-open Crucial Atlantic Hurricane Market 2024 (CAHM24).

Nov 8, 2023 12:30 PM — 1:30 PM University of Exeter, Harrison 101

Mark Roulston

Markets, Information, and Feedback

In this talk, Todd Kaplan (UoExeter, UoHaifa, CRUCIAL) discusses potential feedback effects in equity markets and prediction markets.

Sep 21, 2023 12:00 PM — 1:15 PM Center for Behavioral Institutional Design, NYU Abu Dhabi

Todd Kaplan

Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risk

Dr Kim Kaivanto and Dr Mark Roulston introduce CRUCIAL at the Pentland Centre.

Jan 25, 2023 1:00 PM — 2:00 PM Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, LUMS

Kim Kaivanto and Mark Roulston

Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risk

2022

A viability study of joint-outcome prediction markets for climate risk

We demonstrate the viability of highly granular, two-dimensional (joint) outcome spaces with markets for monthly UK rainfall and temperature.

Dec 7, 2022 1:00 PM — 2:00 PM Dept of Economics, De Montford University

Kim Kaivanto

Two projects on learning from markets: bank runs and climate change predictions

We use a lab experiment to study the endogeneity between stock market prices and bank runs. We also propose how prediction markets can be used to provide climate change predictions.

Oct 30, 2022 1:00 PM — 2:30 PM Robert H. Smith Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Environment, Hebrew University

Todd Kaplan

Prediction Markets for Climate Risk

A workshop about an initiative to address emerging problems with the provision of climate risk information. 8 Feb 2022, Woburn House, London

Feb 8, 2022 2:00 PM — 5:00 PM Woburn House