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Mark Roulston
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
A new commercial forecast has landed as sea-surface temperatures have been at record levels for 1 year and as El Niño is expected to transition into La Niña by mid-summer.
Kim Kaivanto
,
Mark Roulston
Mar 14, 2024
1 min read
PDF
Monetizing Climate Forecasts
Better climate projections might have clear societal benefits but does that make climate analytics an attractive commercial investment?
Mark Roulston
Feb 10, 2024
3 min read
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
Groundhog Day: little change from last bulletin.
Kim Kaivanto
,
Mark Roulston
Feb 2, 2024
1 min read
PDF
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
CRUCIAL’s hurricane prediction market is forecasting a higher-than-average number of hurricanes this year.
Kim Kaivanto
,
Mark Roulston
Jan 15, 2024
1 min read
PDF
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
Hurricane prediction market suggests an elevated likelihood of an active season.
Kim Kaivanto
,
Mark Roulston
Jan 2, 2024
1 min read
PDF
Comment on: New ways to pay for research could boost scientific progress
There is an alternative to the funding models for scientific research that you discussed: prediction markets.
Mark Roulston
Last updated on Dec 15, 2023
1 min read
Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risks
In this talk, Mark discusses prediction markets for forecasting climate risk, CRUCIAL and its AGORA platform, and the soon-to-open Crucial Atlantic Hurricane Market 2024 (CAHM24).
Nov 8, 2023 12:30 PM — 1:30 PM
University of Exeter, Harrison 101
Mark Roulston
Video
Tutorial for CAHM24
The CAHM24 prediction market is intended to produce a forecast of how many hurricanes will occur during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season that represents the collective wisdom and expertise of all those taking part.
Mark Roulston
Nov 7, 2023
4 min read
Fixing Climate Forecasting's Lemon Problem
The number of private sector suppliers of climate forecasts is growing but knowing whether a provider is competent is hard. Prediction markets for climate-related risks could help.
Mark Roulston
May 15, 2023
4 min read
Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risk
Dr Kim Kaivanto and Dr Mark Roulston introduce CRUCIAL at the Pentland Centre.
Jan 25, 2023 1:00 PM — 2:00 PM
Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, LUMS
Kim Kaivanto and Mark Roulston
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