Mark Roulston

2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
Groundhog Day: little change from last bulletin.
Feb 2, 2024 1 min read
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
CRUCIAL’s hurricane prediction market is forecasting a higher-than-average number of hurricanes this year.
Jan 15, 2024 1 min read
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
Hurricane prediction market suggests an elevated likelihood of an active season.
Jan 2, 2024 1 min read
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
Comment on: New ways to pay for research could boost scientific progress
There is an alternative to the funding models for scientific research that you discussed: prediction markets.
Last updated on Dec 15, 2023 1 min read
Comment on: New ways to pay for research could boost scientific progress
Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risks
In this talk, Mark discusses prediction markets for forecasting climate risk, CRUCIAL and its AGORA platform, and the soon-to-open Crucial Atlantic Hurricane Market 2024 (CAHM24).
Nov 8, 2023 12:30 PM — 1:30 PM University of Exeter, Harrison 101
Video
Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risks
Tutorial for CAHM24
The CAHM24 prediction market is intended to produce a forecast of how many hurricanes will occur during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season that represents the collective wisdom and expertise of all those taking part.
Nov 7, 2023 4 min read
Tutorial for CAHM24
Fixing Climate Forecasting's Lemon Problem
The number of private sector suppliers of climate forecasts is growing but knowing whether a provider is competent is hard. Prediction markets for climate-related risks could help.
May 15, 2023 4 min read
Fixing Climate Forecasting's Lemon Problem
Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risk
Dr Kim Kaivanto and Dr Mark Roulston introduce CRUCIAL at the Pentland Centre.
Jan 25, 2023 1:00 PM — 2:00 PM Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, LUMS
Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risk
Prediction-market innovations can improve climate-risk forecasts
Forward-looking information about climate risks is critical for decision makers, but the provision and accuracy of such information is …
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Prediction-market innovations can improve climate-risk forecasts
CRUCIAL White Paper
A proposal for generating forward-looking climate-risk information with expert prediction markets.
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CRUCIAL White Paper