2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
CAHM24 suggests an elevated likelihood of an active season.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season saw 7 hurricanes, slightly above the long-run average of about 6 hurricanes. In terms of the total number of named storms, the 2023 season was the fourth most active on record.
The CAHM24 prediction market to predict the number of hurricanes in the 2024 season opened last month and is currently indicating an elevated probability of an active season.
The prices suggest a 60% chance there will be more hurricanes during the 2024 season than in 2023, this is similar to the climatology over the past three decades and is slightly lower than the 70% probability of more than 7 hurricanes in the December forecast from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).
As new forecasts and other information become available to the participants in the prediction market prices will evolve to reflect their updated probabilities.
Price updates from CAHM24 will be regularly published at https://www.crucialab.net.