2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1. This season is predicted to one of, if not the most, active on record.
The implied probability, according to prices in the CAHM24 expert prediction market, of more than 10 hurricanes has increased in the last week from 35% to 44% while the chances of more than 12 hurricanes has doubled from 9% to 18%. The chances that the record of 15 hurricanes set in 2005 will be equaled or exceeded has also ticked up to 4.5%.
Manifold Markets
Manifold Markets is running a play-money prediction market for the number of hurricanes in 2024.1 Its modal prediction is for around 11 or 12 hurricanes, but it suffers from an “overround”, with implied probabilities across all outcomes summing to over 200%. This is a problem seen in markets that lack arbitrageurs or a well-designed automated market maker.
Price updates from CAHM24 will be regularly published at https://www.crucialab.net/market/cahm24/.
