2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
The first storm of the 2024 hurricane season has formed in the Gulf region. ALBERTO formed off the coast of Mexico and is currently classed as a tropical storm that has yet to achieve hurricane status.
The implied probability, according to prices in the CAHM24 expert prediction market, of more than 10 hurricanes has decreased in the last week from 44% to 37% while the chances of more than 12 hurricanes remains unchanged at 18%. The chances that the record of 15 hurricanes set in 2005 will be equaled or exceeded has increased to 7%.
Weatherbug on June’s hurricane history
Weatherbug points out that historically June is not an active month for hurricanes and, “Since modern weather records began, nearly half of all the Junes do not see any named storms.”1
Price updates from CAHM24 will be regularly published at https://www.crucialab.net/market/cahm24/.
