Mark Roulston

Comment on: New ways to pay for research could boost scientific progress
There is an alternative to the funding models for scientific research that you discussed: prediction markets.
Last updated on Dec 15, 2023 1 min read
Comment on: New ways to pay for research could boost scientific progress
Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risks
In this talk, Mark discusses prediction markets for forecasting climate risk, CRUCIAL and its AGORA platform, and the soon-to-open Crucial Atlantic Hurricane Market 2024 (CAHM24).
Nov 8, 2023 12:30 PM — 1:30 PM University of Exeter, Harrison 101
Video
Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risks
Tutorial for CAHM24
The CAHM24 prediction market is intended to produce a forecast of how many hurricanes will occur during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season that represents the collective wisdom and expertise of all those taking part.
Nov 7, 2023 4 min read
Tutorial for CAHM24
Fixing Climate Forecasting's Lemon Problem
The number of private sector suppliers of climate forecasts is growing but knowing whether a provider is competent is hard. Prediction markets for climate-related risks could help.
May 15, 2023 4 min read
Fixing Climate Forecasting's Lemon Problem
Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risk
Dr Kim Kaivanto and Dr Mark Roulston introduce CRUCIAL at the Pentland Centre.
Jan 25, 2023 1:00 PM — 2:00 PM Pentland Centre for Sustainability in Business, LUMS
Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risk
Prediction-market innovations can improve climate-risk forecasts
Forward-looking information about climate risks is critical for decision makers, but the provision and accuracy of such information is …
PDF DOI
Prediction-market innovations can improve climate-risk forecasts
CRUCIAL White Paper
A proposal for generating forward-looking climate-risk information with expert prediction markets.
PDF
CRUCIAL White Paper
Why no climate warranties?
The market for climate risk forecasts suffers from information asymmetries which could be mitigated by warranties from forecast providers. Some potential reasons why warranties are not commonplace are worrying.
Mar 10, 2022 6 min read
Why no climate warranties?
Prediction Markets for Climate Risk
A workshop about an initiative to address emerging problems with the provision of climate risk information. 8 Feb 2022, Woburn House, London
Feb 8, 2022 2:00 PM — 5:00 PM Woburn House
Prediction Markets for Climate Risk
Cost witout benefit
The market for forward-looking climate information is structurally vulnerable to bad products pushing out good products. This will undermine the credibility of climate-related risk disclosures, turning them into a cost without a benefit.
Dec 17, 2021 5 min read
Cost witout benefit