2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin

A new commercial forecast has landed as sea-surface temperatures have been at record levels for 1 year and as El Niño is expected to transition into La Niña by mid-summer.

As the number of organisations issuing predictions of Atlantic hurricane activity increases so does the usefulness of CRUCIAL’s prediction market which can aggregate disparate forecasts, along with the views of its expert participants as to their credibility, into a unified probability forecast.

The reinsurance portal, ARTEMIS, maintains an excellent summary page of forecasts for the 2024 hurricane season here. As of this month three organisations have issued forecasts. Tropical Storm Risk are predicting 9 hurricanes, Weatherbell are predicting 14-16 while the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are predicting 9 hurricanes, although their prediction only runs to September 30 and not the end of the official hurricane season on November 30.

The Barcelona Supercomputing Centre’s forecast comparisons will become available in April.

Price updates from CAHM24 will be regularly published at https://www.crucialab.net/market/cahm24/.