Mark Roulston

The corporate foundation of the French reinsurance giant SCOR is backing an initiative led by Lancaster University Management School to use prediction markets to combine diverse forecasts of future climate into unified predictions and potentially provide a radical new mechanism for funding climate research.

Climate change is altering the statistical relationship between sea-surface temperature and hurricane activity?

High frequency trading can increase the speed at which new information is incorporated into prices in a prediction market, but this extra speed might be unnecessary for the usefulness of the forecasts the market is producing.

Climate change is altering the statistical relationship between sea-surface temperature and hurricane activity?

Prediction markets for climate-related risks could be a prime target for manipulators wishing to create the impression that climate change is either less or more of a problem than the scientific consensus.

This paper reports viability tests of prediction markets with highly granular, monthly UK rainfall and temperature joint outcome spaces. The experiments demonstrate these markets can aggregate the judgments of experts with relevant expertise, and suggest similarly structured markets, with longer horizons, could provide a mechanism to produce credible forecasts of climate-related risks for policy making, planning, and risk disclosure.

This article examines the performance of 24 prediction markets for climate-related variables that have been run over the past five years. The markets had horizons of 2 to 12 months. The predictions of the markets were consistent with good reliability, given the resolving power afforded by the sample size.

Following Beryl, forecasts – including CAHM24 – have shifted further.

The first storm of the 2024 hurricane season has formed in the Gulf region — but it has yet to achieve hurricane status.