Kim Kaivanto

Teams of academic experts from seven UK universities have joined Lancaster University Management School’s CRUCIAL initiative.

Media pieces mentioning CRUCIAL from the last two weeks.

The corporate foundation of the French reinsurance giant SCOR is backing an initiative led by Lancaster University Management School to use prediction markets to combine diverse forecasts of future climate into unified predictions and potentially provide a radical new mechanism for funding climate research.

Climate change is altering the statistical relationship between sea-surface temperature and hurricane activity?

Climate change is altering the statistical relationship between sea-surface temperature and hurricane activity?

This paper reports viability tests of prediction markets with highly granular, monthly UK rainfall and temperature joint outcome spaces. The experiments demonstrate these markets can aggregate the judgments of experts with relevant expertise, and suggest similarly structured markets, with longer horizons, could provide a mechanism to produce credible forecasts of climate-related risks for policy making, planning, and risk disclosure.

This article examines the performance of 24 prediction markets for climate-related variables that have been run over the past five years. The markets had horizons of 2 to 12 months. The predictions of the markets were consistent with good reliability, given the resolving power afforded by the sample size.

Following Beryl, forecasts – including CAHM24 – have shifted further.

Kim Kaivanto on the properties and potential of CRUCIAL’s LMSR platform at the EFAG Second Summer Symposium for Sustainability hosted by Durham University.