Kim Kaivanto

Air Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature, and Tropical Storms

A new commercial forecast has landed as sea-surface temperatures have been at record levels for 1 year and as El Niño is expected to transition into La Niña by mid-summer.

For ease of communication with the public, each tropical storm is alotted a distinctive, instantly recognisable name. The storm retains this name even when it develops into a fully fledged hurricane.

Groundhog Day: little change from last bulletin.

CRUCIAL in the news.

CRUCIAL’s hurricane prediction market is forecasting a higher-than-average number of hurricanes this year.

Hurricane prediction market suggests an elevated likelihood of an active season.

CRUCIAL is seeking research teams to participate in prediction markets for climate-related risks. Researchers from physical and social sciences with diverse expertise relevant to predicting physical climate risks and forecasting future greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations should register their interest.

Dr Kim Kaivanto and Dr Mark Roulston introduce CRUCIAL at the Pentland Centre.

We demonstrate the viability of highly granular, two-dimensional (joint) outcome spaces with markets for monthly UK rainfall and temperature.