New Teams Join CRUCIAL Markets

The number of teams participating in CRUCIAL markets has recently expanded to 12 with the on-boarding of teams from TOPIM (Tropical Cyclone Ocean-coupled Potential Intensity Model) and Colby College.

The TOPIM team draws on expertise from Dr. Samantha Hallam at ICARUS Climate Research Centre, Maynooth University Ireland, Dr. Mark Guishard from Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences (BIOS) and Prof. Donovan Campbell from University of West Indies at Mona, Jamaica. Dr. Samantha Hallam was the lead PI in the development of the TOPIM model. ICARUS (Irish Climate Analysis Research Units) is a leading centre for climate research led by Prof. Peter Thorne. Dr. Mark Guishard has been responsible for risk prediction at BIOS for many years and Prof. Donovan Campbell brings expertise in societal risk management.

The Colby College team is led by Colby alumnus and meteorologist Jan Dutton and advised by Assistant Professor of Mathematics Matt Jones. We are a team of Colby College students studying mathematics, data science, physics, and chemistry. Our goal is to use historical data and statistical models to improve predictions for joint-outcome climate markets. As students, we have experience collaborating on quantitative modelling projects in school and externally, such as our recent participation in the COMAP ICM contest. With guidance from advisors experienced in weather forecasting and network science, we hope to contribute to CRUCIAL’s prediction market forecasting approach.