Kim Kaivanto

This article examines the performance of 24 prediction markets for climate-related variables that have been run over the past five years. The markets had horizons of 2 to 12 months. The predictions of the markets were consistent with good reliability, given the resolving power afforded by the sample size.

Following Beryl, forecasts – including CAHM24 – have shifted further.

Kim Kaivanto on the properties and potential of CRUCIAL’s LMSR platform at the EFAG Second Summer Symposium for Sustainability hosted by Durham University.

The first storm of the 2024 hurricane season has formed in the Gulf region — but it has yet to achieve hurricane status.

CAHM24’s 70% range of hurricanes anticipates NOAA’s final pre-season update.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1. This season is predicted to one of, if not the most, active on record.

What is the difference between a tropical cyclone, a hurricane, and a major hurricane?

From the perils of icebergs and hurricanes to the power of space weather and the devastation of forest fires, Lancaster University researchers have been working for decades to detect and anticipate shifts in the natural world.

Kim Kaivanto on the properties and potential of CRUCIAL’s LMSR platform at the inaugural Experimental Sustainable Finance symposium hosted by Radboud University.

Air Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature, and Tropical Storms