2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin

Exceedance probabilities implied by prices in the CAHM24 market for the number of hurricanes during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Exceedance probabilities implied by prices in the CAHM24 market for the number of hurricanes during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Hurricane Beryl became the first hurricane of the 2024 season last month and the earliest CAT5 hurricane on record.

The implied probability, according to prices in the CAHM24 expert prediction market, of more than 10 hurricanes has increased from 37% last month to 42%, well above the climatological probability, while the chances of more than 12 hurricanes has increased to from 18% to 23%.

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CSU upgrades forecast

Earlier this month Colorado State University updated the hurricane season forecast they issued in April by increasing the expected number of hurricanes from 11 to 12. The April forecast was the highest number of hurricanes they had ever predicted pre-season.1


Price updates from CAHM24 will be regularly published at https://www.crucialab.net/market/cahm24/.



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