Post Archive

Groundhog Day: little change from last bulletin.

CRUCIAL in the news.

CRUCIAL’s hurricane prediction market is forecasting a higher-than-average number of hurricanes this year.

Hurricane prediction market suggests an elevated likelihood of an active season.

There is an alternative to the funding models for scientific research that you discussed: prediction markets.

The CAHM24 prediction market is intended to produce a forecast of how many hurricanes will occur during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season that represents the collective wisdom and expertise of all those taking part.

The CRUCIAL at Lancaster University is opening a prediction market to forecast the number of Atlantic hurricanes in the 2024 hurricane season.

CRUCIAL is seeking research teams to participate in prediction markets for climate-related risks. Researchers from physical and social sciences with diverse expertise relevant to predicting physical climate risks and forecasting future greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations should register their interest.

The number of private sector suppliers of climate forecasts is growing but knowing whether a provider is competent is hard. Prediction markets for climate-related risks could help.

AGORA is a platform for hosting prediction markets in which participants can bet on the outcome of events or the values of particular quantities. This article is an introduction to trading on AGORA prediction markets.