This is the race to achieve reliable long-term weather predictions

Image credit: Zoltan Balogh (EFE)

In an article published in El País, Spain’s second-largest daily newspaper by circulation, Raúl Limón writes about the various approaches and initiatives within the scientific community to develop reliable long-term weather predictions with which to adequately prepare for extreme weather events that currently cost more than 131,565 million euros each year.

The consequences of efficient weather forecasting go far beyond planning a vacation. Having precise data over a long period of time, beyond the three days currently assumed by the most reliable estimates, would save lives and avoid economic losses that a study published in Nature Communications estimates at 143,000 million dollars annually (131,565 million euros). Technological giants such as Google or IBM, in collaboration with NASA, and institutions from the EU and other continents, have joined the objectives of the United Nations plan to improve early warning systems and develop tools to take advantage of advances in technology. artificial intelligence in order to achieve a reliable prediction in the medium and long term. Understanding the sky is one of the scientific and technological challenges of our time.

Excerpt of article pertaining to CRUCIAL:

Some initiatives focus on specific phenomena to advance precise forecasts. It is the case of CRUCIAL laboratory from the universities of Lancaster and Exeter, in the United Kingdom, which attempts to determine the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic in 2024.

“Changes in ocean temperatures, driven by climate change, mean that the historical hurricane record is no longer a good guide to predicting future hurricanes,” he says. Kim Kaivanto Professor of Economics and member of the CRUCIAL initiative.

The original article appeared in Spanish and has subsequently been republished in Spanish, Spanish, Spanish, Spanish, English, English, and French.