Mark Roulston

Prediction markets should be explicitly funded by sponsors who want the information that the markets elicit and aggregate.

What problems do multi-decadal horizons create, and how can they be addressed?

Before the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began the consensus was that it would be one of the most active seasons in history. However, …

Guide to using CRUCIAL’s AGORA prediction market platform

What problems do multi-decadal horizons create, and how can they be addressed?

Media pieces mentioning CRUCIAL from the last two weeks.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House highlights the need for asset owners to factor in climate adaptation, as well as mitigation.

The corporate foundation of the French reinsurance giant SCOR is backing an initiative led by Lancaster University Management School to use prediction markets to combine diverse forecasts of future climate into unified predictions and potentially provide a radical new mechanism for funding climate research.

Climate change is altering the statistical relationship between sea-surface temperature and hurricane activity?