Kim Kaivanto

For ease of communication with the public, each tropical storm is alotted a distinctive, instantly recognisable name. The storm retains this name even when it develops into a fully fledged hurricane.

What problems do multi-decadal horizons create, and how can they be addressed?

Before the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began the consensus was that it would be one of the most active seasons in history. However, …

Teams of academic experts from seven UK universities have joined Lancaster University Management School’s CRUCIAL initiative.

Media pieces mentioning CRUCIAL from the last two weeks.

The corporate foundation of the French reinsurance giant SCOR is backing an initiative led by Lancaster University Management School to use prediction markets to combine diverse forecasts of future climate into unified predictions and potentially provide a radical new mechanism for funding climate research.

Climate change is altering the statistical relationship between sea-surface temperature and hurricane activity?

Climate change is altering the statistical relationship between sea-surface temperature and hurricane activity?

This paper reports viability tests of prediction markets with highly granular, monthly UK rainfall and temperature joint outcome spaces. The experiments demonstrate these markets can aggregate the judgments of experts with relevant expertise, and suggest similarly structured markets, with longer horizons, could provide a mechanism to produce credible forecasts of climate-related risks for policy making, planning, and risk disclosure.