Mark Roulston

Climate change is altering the statistical relationship between sea-surface temperature and hurricane activity?

Prediction markets for climate-related risks could be a prime target for manipulators wishing to create the impression that climate change is either less or more of a problem than the scientific consensus.

This paper reports viability tests of prediction markets with highly granular, monthly UK rainfall and temperature joint outcome spaces. The experiments demonstrate these markets can aggregate the judgments of experts with relevant expertise, and suggest similarly structured markets, with longer horizons, could provide a mechanism to produce credible forecasts of climate-related risks for policy making, planning, and risk disclosure.

This article examines the performance of 24 prediction markets for climate-related variables that have been run over the past five years. The markets had horizons of 2 to 12 months. The predictions of the markets were consistent with good reliability, given the resolving power afforded by the sample size.

Following Beryl, forecasts – including CAHM24 – have shifted further.

The first storm of the 2024 hurricane season has formed in the Gulf region — but it has yet to achieve hurricane status.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1. This season is predicted to one of, if not the most, active on record.

A new commercial forecast has landed as sea-surface temperatures have been at record levels for 1 year and as El Niño is expected to transition into La Niña by mid-summer.

Better climate projections might have clear societal benefits but does that make climate analytics an attractive commercial investment?