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CAHM24
Update: Climate Risk at a Tipping Point?
Air Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature, and Tropical Storms
Kim Kaivanto
Mar 18, 2024
5 min read
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
A new commercial forecast has landed as sea-surface temperatures have been at record levels for 1 year and as El Niño is expected to transition into La Niña by mid-summer.
Kim Kaivanto and Mark Roulston
Mar 14, 2024
1 min read
PDF
How Do Atlantic Hurricanes Get Named?
For ease of communication with the public, each tropical storm is alotted a distinctive, instantly recognisable name. The storm retains this name even when it develops into a fully fledged hurricane.
Kim Kaivanto
Feb 8, 2024
2 min read
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
Groundhog Day: little change from last bulletin.
Kim Kaivanto and Mark Roulston
Feb 2, 2024
1 min read
PDF
This is the race to achieve reliable long-term weather predictions
CRUCIAL in the news.
Kim Kaivanto
Jan 22, 2024
2 min read
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
CRUCIAL’s hurricane prediction market is forecasting a higher-than-average number of hurricanes this year.
Kim Kaivanto and Mark Roulston
Jan 15, 2024
1 min read
PDF
2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction Market Bulletin
Hurricane prediction market suggests an elevated likelihood of an active season.
Kim Kaivanto and Mark Roulston
Jan 2, 2024
1 min read
PDF
Tutorial for CAHM24
The CAHM24 prediction market is intended to produce a forecast of how many hurricanes will occur during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season that represents the collective wisdom and expertise of all those taking part.
Mark Roulston
Nov 7, 2023
4 min read
Inaugural expert climate prediction market for Atlantic hurricanes
The CRUCIAL at Lancaster University is opening a prediction market to forecast the number of Atlantic hurricanes in the 2024 hurricane season.
Kim Kaivanto
Sep 18, 2023
2 min read
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