Post Archive

Five tips for making the most of El Niño and La Niña forecasts
Expert advice from Pedro Di Nezio on how to gain the greatest advantage from look-ahead forecasts of El Niño and La Niña
Jun 19, 2025 1 min read
Five tips for making the most of El Niño and La Niña forecasts
The 2024 Atlantic Tropical Storm Naming List
For ease of communication with the public, each tropical storm is alotted a distinctive, instantly recognisable name. The storm retains this name even when it develops into a fully fledged hurricane.
Jun 11, 2025 2 min read
Prediction markets are not a free lunch
Prediction markets should be explicitly funded by sponsors who want the information that the markets elicit and aggregate.
Jun 9, 2025 5 min read
Prediction markets are not a free lunch
Researchers to use the power of markets to break El Niño’s ‘Spring Barrier’
What problems do multi-decadal horizons create, and how can they be addressed?
Jun 4, 2025 4 min read
Researchers to use the power of markets to break El Niño’s ‘Spring Barrier’
AGORA Trading Guide v1.0
Guide to using CRUCIAL’s AGORA prediction market platform
Apr 11, 2025 2 min read
PDF
AGORA Trading Guide v1.0
The challenge of the horizon: Multi-decade prediction markets for climate
What problems do multi-decadal horizons create, and how can they be addressed?
Mar 17, 2025 4 min read
The challenge of the horizon: Multi-decade prediction markets for climate
Experts from UK universities strengthen LUMS’ climate risk forecasting initiative
Teams of academic experts from seven UK universities have joined Lancaster University Management School’s CRUCIAL initiative.
Feb 28, 2025 3 min read
Experts from UK universities strengthen LUMS’ climate risk forecasting initiative
Media coverage roundup
Media pieces mentioning CRUCIAL from the last two weeks.
Feb 7, 2025 1 min read
Media coverage roundup
Asset owners focus on climate adaptation as heat rises
Donald Trump’s return to the White House highlights the need for asset owners to factor in climate adaptation, as well as mitigation.
Jan 23, 2025 1 min read
Asset owners focus on climate adaptation as heat rises
Hurricane Season 2024 Summary
A total of 11 hurricanes were recorded in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which was the resolving outcome in CAHM24.
Dec 2, 2024 1 min read
Hurricane Season 2024 Summary