CRUCIAL: Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risks

Abstract

Kim Kaivanto and Mark Roulston described several structural challenges that affect climate forecasting and showed how using prediction markets can address these challenges. They introduced CRUCIAL, an initiative funded by the SCOR Foundation that uses prediction markets, with expert participants from academia and the private sector, to generate collective probabilistic forecasts of climate-related risks. They described CRUCIAL’s plan to become a new type of scientific institution for synthesizing climate forecasting modelling and expertise, and a mechanism for allocating climate research funding in a performance-driven way.